Bolivia:
A Defeat for MAS

Oct 27, 2025

This article is translated from the October 24 issue, #2986 of Lutte Ouvrière (Workers Struggle), the paper of the Trotskyist group of that name active in France.

The right wing once again rules Bolivia, following the second round of the presidential election on October 19. The deciding factor was the first round on August 19, when the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) collapsed after holding power for 20 years. MAS got 55% of the vote in the first round of the 2020 elections. This year the party only got 3.5%.

Two right-wing candidates reached the second round with nearly 80% of the total votes. Tuto Quiroga represented the traditional right: white capitalists, landowners, ranchers, and soybean growers in the Santa Cruz region. They’ve dreamt of getting rid of MAS for 20 years.

The surprise was Rodrigo Paz, mayor of Tarija. He won 55% of the vote in the second round. He presented himself as different. He promoted a vague “capitalism for all.” He managed to overlook the corruption scandals in Tarija he had been involved in. He was careful not to say he would reverse social reforms implemented over these last 20 years.

He was accompanied by former police officer, “Captain” Edmand Lara, who became popular after being fired for denouncing his superiors’ corruption. This success in the first round was even celebrated in a poor town located uphill from La Paz, El Alto, historically a MAS stronghold and the scene of several uprisings in the past.

MAS rose to power with the election of Evo Morales in 2005, following major social struggles. The poverty-crushed population demanded control of resources: free water and a share of revenue from gas and oil exploitation by foreign companies. In 2006, there was a very partial “nationalization” of these resources. But it allowed for a more favorable distribution of profits for Bolivia. This generated enormous revenues for the state for more than 10 years. Morales and his successor, Luis Arce, chose to use these resources to meet basic needs of the population. They installed nearly 30,000 literacy centers across the country and built roads and hospitals. The population benefited from food stamps and fuel subsidies. The standard of living improved. Extreme poverty declined sharply. A minimum old-age pension, financial assistance for children’s schooling, and free healthcare were established.

But these relative improvements depended on natural gas world prices being high. MAS did not want to attack the national bourgeoisie and large landowners. The bosses were also winners, as they benefited from guaranteed prices. However, over the last decade, reserves have been depleting. Production fell from almost 2,100 million cubic feet per day in 2014 to just over 1,300 million in 2023. Dollar reserves couldn’t prop up the system for long. Crisis erupted. Fuel shortages became widespread, slowing the entire economy. Inflation rose from 2% in 2024 to 25% today. Many food products became inaccessible.

All the public benefits of previous years are disappearing. MAS has discredited itself with its attitude. Scandals, trials, open war between Morales and Arce, violent conflicts between different parts of the MAS coalition: coca leaf growers and indigenous people, cooperative miners turned capitalists, and proletarian miners. All this undermined popular support. Morales called for abstention this year. Many more people than usual didn’t vote. This shows that despite everything, he still enjoys significant popular support.

The claws of global capitalism have closed in on Bolivia, on Morales’ attempts at reform, and on the revolt by Bolivia’s people. But this revolt will resurface sooner or later.