Venezuela:
The Chavista Regime at an Impasse

Aug 19, 2024

This article is translated from the July 31 issue, #2922 of Lutte Ouvrière (Workers Struggle), the paper of the Trotskyist group of that name active in France.

Following the presidential election in Venezuela on July 28, incumbent President Nicolas Maduro claims victory, which is being contested by opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia.

Maduro is said to have won 51% of the vote and his opponent 44%. But his opponent denounced the result as fraud and claimed to have won 70% of the vote. Gonzalez was supported by opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who was prevented from standing for election by Maduro. Clashes broke out between opposition supporters and police. It is not known how widespread the fraud was, or who really benefited from it, but the aftermath of the elections is further confirmation of the crisis facing the Chavista regime.

In 1998, Hugo Chavez took advantage of the collapse of the main parties on the right and left, changed the constitution and launched social programs. For him, oil revenues—Venezuela holds immense oil reserves—should no longer benefit exclusively the big American or British companies and the wealthy class, but also the working classes. Until Chavez’s death in 2013, social programs had been implemented and the poverty rate had fallen significantly.

However, in the early 2000s, as soon as a small share of the oil income went to the poorest, the bourgeoisie, with the support of the United States, attempted two coups to overthrow Chavez. The population opposed the coups. Chavez benefited from high oil prices and had established partnerships, notably with Cuba. In exchange for Venezuelan oil, Cuba sent its doctors. This was known as “Bolivarian Socialism.”

To counterbalance American economic sanctions, Chavez sought support from Russia, China and Iran, alliances that were intolerable to Washington. Knowing he was dying, he appointed Maduro as his successor. Although Maduro was then elected, the United States refused to accept him and stepped up sanctions, depriving Venezuela of important resources. At the same time, falling oil prices made the situation much more difficult. In the 2019 elections, the United States pushed its candidate to attempt a coup d’état, as he tried unsuccessfully to rally the army.

During his twelve years in power, Maduro was able to place his loyalists in positions of responsibility and give the army a prominent place. He has also strengthened his hold on working-class neighborhoods by relying on armed groups supposedly opposed to drug traffickers. This has led to rivalry with police and gangs, and increased the already high level of insecurity.

The economic situation has continued to deteriorate. The fall in the price of oil has caused the oil income to melt away, and oil production has collapsed. Maduro’s opponents, supported by the United States and the European Union, have no problem denouncing the regime’s corruption and mismanagement, even though part of the problem stems from their economic sanctions.

The population has paid a heavy price for this deterioration. Insufficient imports of food and medicines have led to hyperinflation and a black market, making it impossible for the working classes to buy basic necessities. Seven million people have left the country. The wealthiest have gone to the United States or Europe, while the poorest have crowded into refugee camps in neighboring countries.

The Chavista party retains support among the poorest, although they often have to make do with an inadequate monthly food package, and it still has the backing of the army. But how long can this situation last? While the United States has renounced the direct armed intervention raised under Trump, it has always kept up the pressure, hoping to provoke an uprising by the population or the army against Maduro.

If the so-called “Bolivarian socialism” has turned out to be a mirage, and if the regime today holds on only thanks to the grip of the army, it is first and foremost the result of this pressure from imperialism. There can be no socialism in a single country, even in Venezuela with its oil wealth: it is the imperialist system that must be brought down. To achieve this, it will take much more than the policies of a Third World army officer like Chavez.